Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with Borissov's odds collapsed to 0% despite his GERB party's historical strength in Bulgarian politics—a 3-cent drop over seven days suggests either a major political development or thin order books driving the price to an artificial floor. The $6,911 open interest and $84 daily volume indicate minimal market participation, making the 0% price potentially unreliable as a genuine probability estimate rather than a reflection of low demand. With over 16 months until the April 2026 resolution date, this market lacks sufficient depth to serve as a credible prediction mechanism.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Bulgaria following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bulgaria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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