Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Nickeil Alexander-Walker priced at 95¢ on Polymarket versus 93¢ on Kalshi, creating a 2¢ arbitrage opportunity, though the $30 24-hour volume suggests thin liquidity that may prevent efficient execution. The 95% implied probability is highly suspicious given Alexander-Walker's modest role (he averaged 9.1 PPG last season) and the presence of more obvious MIP candidates, with the massive 9,696% implied yield on "No" indicating the market is pricing in near-certain failure. The sharp 17-point price rally over seven days combined with 89% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 19 suggests this may be a thin-market anomaly or manipulation rather than genuine conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Most Improved Player. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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