Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Roberto Sánchez Palomino is priced at a remarkably high 79¢ on Polymarket with exceptional liquidity ($255k in 24h volume), suggesting strong consensus that he'll finish second in Peru's April 2026 first round, though the 2¢ spread and 81¢ Kalshi price indicate some uncertainty remains. The 73¢ price surge over seven days is notable and warrants investigation into recent polling shifts or campaign developments in Peru. With the election closing date matching market expiry (4/12/2026), there's minimal time for resolution ambiguity, though the potential June runoff creates some complexity around what constitutes "first round" results.

Resolution rules

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Regime

Trade