Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

This Samsonova market displays extreme mispricing signals with a 4¢ price generating a nonsensical 10,488% implied yield on the Yes side, while the No side offers only 18.2%—a massive asymmetry that suggests the market is severely undervaluing her chances or the pricing mechanism has broken down. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $24,040 open interest and a 6¢ spread indicates dangerously low liquidity, making the 4% probability potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. With 84 days until resolution and realized volatility at 4,613%, this market appears distressed; the recent 300% price surge (1¢ to 4¢ in seven days) at near-zero volume warrants caution before treating this as a genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Wimbledon (https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade