Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Newsom's 2028 presidential odds are priced at a modest 17¢, implying roughly a 1-in-6 chance, with the Yes side offering an exceptionally high 191.1% implied yield compared to just 8.0% for No—a stark asymmetry suggesting either undervaluation of the California governor's candidacy or market skepticism about his national viability. The market shows healthy liquidity with $347k open interest and $14.3k in 24-hour volume, though the near-perfect 0¢ spread and neutral regime indicate relatively stable pricing with minimal arbitrage opportunities. With 933 days until resolution, the low cliff risk index (5) and modest 1-point price movement over seven days suggest this is a mature, efficiently-priced market without imminent catalysts driving volatility.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Indicators

Regime

Trade