Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Vrtovec's odds have collapsed dramatically, falling 85% over seven days from 42¢ to 7¢, suggesting a significant shift in market sentiment about his viability as the next Slovenian PM ahead of the March 2026 parliamentary elections. The 2¢ spread and aligned pricing across Polymarket and Kalshi indicate reasonable liquidity despite the modest $9.6K daily volume, though the $13.9M open interest suggests meaningful capital is still committed to this outcome. The neutral regime score and sharp price movement warrant monitoring for any political developments in Slovenia that could explain the sudden repricing.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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