Will Jernej Vrtovec become Prime Minister of Slovenia following the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 779.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation of Vrtovec's chances or significant risk aversion among traders. The sharp 5-cent price surge over seven days combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $38 and a wide 3-cent spread indicates low liquidity and potential manipulation vulnerability. With 622 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the market has substantial time for information discovery, though the null price on Polymarket suggests this contract may lack meaningful cross-venue validation.

Resolution rules

If Jernej Vrtovec becomes Prime Minister of Slovenia as a result of government formation following the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

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