Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Berrettini's 1% implied probability reflects his status as a significant longshot, which is reasonable given his age (he'll be 34 at the 2026 tournament) and recent injury history, though the 1¢ price hasn't moved in seven days suggesting limited market conviction either way. The $23.6K open interest against just $231 in 24-hour volume indicates this is a relatively illiquid backwater market with minimal recent trading activity, making the tight 0¢ spread somewhat misleading about true price discovery. With the market closing just days after the tournament ends (7/12/2026), there's minimal time for late arbitrage or news-driven repricing once play begins.

Resolution rules

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Wimbledon (https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

Trade