Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

The market is pricing Andersson at 59¢ with an unusually asymmetric yield structure—the "No" side offers 358.5% implied yield versus 173.1% for "Yes"—suggesting the market is heavily skewed toward her not becoming PM despite the majority probability. With $27.7M in open interest but only $537K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the position size, and the 131% realized volatility indicates substantial price swings despite the neutral regime. The contract has gained 4¢ over seven days with 147 days to expiration, leaving ample time for Swedish political developments to move the needle before the September 2026 parliamentary elections.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade