Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Josh Shapiro is priced at an extremely depressed 2% probability despite substantial open interest of $291k, suggesting either deep skepticism about his viability as a general election candidate or that traders view him as unlikely to secure the Democratic nomination. The 24-hour volume of $4.8M indicates active trading interest, yet the price has only doubled from 1¢ to 2¢ over seven days, suggesting limited conviction in either direction rather than a clear directional trend. With nearly four years until resolution and a tight 0¢ spread, this market appears efficiently priced for a long-shot candidacy, though the neutral regime score indicates no unusual volatility or sentiment shifts.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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