Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

This market shows an extreme price collapse from 37¢ to 0¢ over seven days, suggesting a dramatic shift in expectations about Orbán's political viability or eligibility ahead of Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary elections. The 0% price combined with substantial open interest of $800k indicates either a consensus view that Orbán will not be the next PM or potential resolution ambiguity that's deterring trading. The $47k in 24-hour volume is notable given the zero price, suggesting recent liquidation activity or positioning ahead of the April 12 close.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

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