Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Stephen Smith is priced at an extremely low 1¢ with negligible implied probability, reflecting near-zero market confidence in his candidacy despite $550k in open interest and robust 24h volume of $91.8k. The zero-width spread indicates efficient pricing with no arbitrage opportunity, though the substantial liquidity relative to the candidate's odds suggests either speculative interest or hedging activity. With roughly 1,400 days until the November 2028 election, this appears to be a long-dated novelty or protest position rather than a serious contender market.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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