Will Trey Murphy III win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?

This market shows a 0% implied probability with zero 24-hour volume despite $8,025 in open interest, suggesting the position is either stale or held by a contrarian bettor who believes Murphy has virtually no chance at the 2025–26 MIP award. The zero price across both Polymarket and Kalshi indicates strong consensus that Murphy won't win, though with nearly 18 months until resolution (6/30/2026), the lack of trading activity makes it difficult to assess whether this reflects genuine market confidence or simply thin liquidity for a long-dated, low-probability outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Most Improved Player. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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