Will Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

This market is pricing Denkov at zero probability despite $5.9M in open interest, suggesting either strong consensus against his candidacy or potential mispricing given Bulgaria's volatile political landscape where coalition dynamics often produce unexpected outcomes. The $261K in 24-hour volume indicates modest liquidity relative to open interest, and the zero spread reflects minimal trading activity at the extremes. With the market closing April 19, 2026—the election date itself—there's minimal time for price discovery after voting results, which could create resolution ambiguity if the PM isn't immediately sworn in.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Bulgaria following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bulgaria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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