Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining 50% over seven days from 4¢ to 2¢, suggesting deteriorating odds for Åkesson despite the Sweden Democrats' recent polling strength. With $27.7M in open interest against just $1.5M in 24-hour volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to the contract size, creating potential slippage risk for larger positions. The near-zero spread and neutral regime indicate consensus pricing around this 2% probability, though the sharp recent decline warrants monitoring for whether this reflects genuine political shifts or technical positioning ahead of the September 2026 election.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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