Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

The 38¢ price implies a 38% probability for Kristersson, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 406.4% on the Yes side signals either severe underpricing or substantial tail risk that markets are underweighting. With 147 days to expiry and relatively thin liquidity ($24.6K open interest against $1.1K daily volume), the market lacks depth to absorb larger positions, potentially explaining both the outsized yield and the tight 2¢ spread. The neutral regime and minimal 7-day price movement (37¢ to 38¢) suggest the market has settled into a holding pattern ahead of Swedish political developments, though the cliff risk index of 2 indicates moderate event concentration risk as September 2026 approaches.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade