Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

James Talarico, a Texas state representative with minimal national profile, is priced at just 1% implied probability—appropriately reflecting his near-zero odds of winning the presidency. The market shows healthy liquidity with $445.7K open interest and $3.5K daily volume, though the zero spread suggests thin active trading at these extreme price levels. With over three years until the November 2028 election, this appears to be a novelty/long-shot market rather than a serious contender, typical of prediction markets that price fringe candidates at nominal odds.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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