Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

This market shows zero trading activity with a 0¢ price despite holding $11.2K in open interest, suggesting the position is either a legacy holding or speculative bet that has lost all perceived value. The sharp decline from 1¢ to 0¢ over seven days indicates rapidly deteriorating odds for Tonin ahead of the March 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections, though the complete illiquidity (0¢ spread, $0 volume) makes it impossible to execute any position at current levels. With roughly 15 months until resolution, the market's abandonment suggests either strong consensus that Tonin won't lead the next government or insufficient trader interest in this specific outcome.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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