Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

This market shows extreme bearishness on Busch's chances, with a 0% price indicating traders assign virtually no probability to her becoming PM, despite over $14.8M in open interest suggesting meaningful engagement with Swedish politics betting. The sharp decline from 1¢ to 0¢ over seven days signals rapidly deteriorating sentiment, though the $1.4M in 24-hour volume remains modest relative to open interest, suggesting limited recent trading at these depressed levels. With the market closing on the election date itself (9/13/2026), there's minimal time decay risk, but the zero spread and zero price create a liquidity dead zone where any contrarian position would face execution challenges.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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