Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

21¢

Bid/Ask 20/22¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $14,993.458·Closes Aug 11, 2026·114d remaining

0xa718870d98c2f9c76efd54629365c24fe87804eb1b28e287ca5344b5924931f0

7-day price34 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Craig's nomination odds have surged 31% over the past week (from 16¢ to 21¢), though the market remains illiquid with zero 24-hour volume despite $15M open interest, suggesting this may reflect recent news rather than active trading. The extreme 1209% implied yield on "Yes" combined with a 394% realized volatility and modest 1¢ cross-venue gap (Polymarket 21¢ vs Kalshi 20¢) indicates high uncertainty around a competitive primary with 114 days to resolution. The neutral regime score and elevated cliff risk index (4/10) suggest the market is pricing in significant binary event risk, possibly tied to candidate announcements or polling shifts in the Minnesota Democratic primary race.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 20¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 736.7%Close-time delta 2031h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1209.3%

IY (No) 85.5%

Adj IY 1209%

CRI 4

RV 394%

VR 1.16

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1209.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	85.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1209%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	394%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.16	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:18:53 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa718870d98c2f9c76efd54629365c24fe87804eb1b28e287ca5344b5924931f0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →