Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Tim Walz is priced at an extremely low 1% probability despite substantial liquidity, with $1.74M in open interest and $81K in 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal market conviction that he'll be the Democratic nominee or general election winner. The tight 0¢ spread indicates efficient pricing at this depressed level rather than a liquidity issue. With roughly 3.5 years until the November 2028 election, this pricing likely reflects either his current position outside the likely nominee pool or broader uncertainty about the Democratic field, making this a deep contrarian bet for those bullish on his political trajectory.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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