Will Elise Mertens be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Elise Mertens is priced at just 1% implied probability to win Wimbledon 2026, reflecting her status as a mid-tier player without a Grand Slam title, though this extreme discount may undervalue her grass-court potential given her consistent WTA performance. The market shows healthy open interest of $25.6K against minimal 24-hour volume of $74.37, suggesting limited recent trading activity despite the tournament occurring in approximately 18 months. The zero spread and neutral regime indicate stable pricing, though the low liquidity relative to open interest could create slippage for larger position entries.

Resolution rules

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Wimbledon (https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

Trade