Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

This market shows extremely high conviction in Radev's ascension to the premiership, with the price surging 17.5 percentage points over the past week to reach 94¢, suggesting a significant recent development in Bulgarian politics or polling. The 3¢ spread indicates reasonable liquidity despite modest 24-hour volume of $16,336, though the open interest of $12.7M suggests concentrated positions that could create volatility near the April 2026 expiry. The 94% implied probability is notably aggressive for a political outcome still 18+ months away, warranting scrutiny of whether this reflects genuine consensus or potential mispricing given the inherent uncertainty in multi-party parliamentary negotiations.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Bulgaria following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bulgaria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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