Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Anže Logar's odds have declined sharply from 10¢ to 7¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating political prospects ahead of Slovenia's March 2026 parliamentary elections. The 2¢ spread and $15,962 open interest indicate moderate liquidity, though the $3,496 daily volume is relatively light for a binary political outcome with over a year until resolution. The absence of pricing data on Kalshi limits cross-venue arbitrage analysis, but the 7% probability appears to reflect Logar as a minor contender rather than a frontrunner for the premiership.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially elected by the National Assembly (Državni zbor) and sworn in as Prime Minister of Slovenia following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Slovenia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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