Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Haley's 1% probability reflects near-zero market conviction in her candidacy despite substantial liquidity of $1.35M open interest and robust 24-hour volume of $119.9M, suggesting this is primarily a hedging or speculative position rather than a serious contender bet. The zero spread indicates tight pricing efficiency, though the extremely low price makes this a long-shot lottery ticket rather than a meaningful probability assessment. With roughly 1,400 days until resolution, this market has ample time for odds to shift, but current pricing suggests the market views her path to the nomination and general election as highly improbable.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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