Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Wes Moore, Maryland's governor, is priced at just 1% implied probability despite substantial liquidity of $928k open interest and nearly $195k in 24-hour volume, suggesting strong consensus he is not a viable presidential contender. The zero spread indicates efficient pricing with no arbitrage opportunity, though the extremely low odds leave minimal upside for contrarian bettors. With roughly 1,000 days until the November 2028 election, this market has ample time for Moore's political profile to shift, making the current 1¢ price potentially vulnerable to significant repricing if he gains national prominence or secures major party backing.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Regime

Trade