Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2¢ price reflects an extremely low probability assessment, consistent with historical precedent that celebrities without political experience rarely mount viable presidential campaigns. With $232M in open interest against just $22M in 24-hour volume, this market shows substantial depth but relatively thin daily trading, suggesting most positions are longer-term speculative holds rather than active hedging. The zero spread and flat 7-day price action indicate minimal conviction for movement in either direction, with the neutral regime score reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether Johnson might enter the race rather than confidence in either outcome.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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