Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Pete Hegseth is priced at an extremely low 1% probability despite commanding substantial open interest of $1.43M, suggesting this is primarily a speculative or hedge position rather than a serious contender assessment. The 24-hour volume of $93K indicates active trading at these depressed odds, though the zero spread suggests tight liquidity at the current price point. With roughly 1,000 days until expiration, this market has ample time for sentiment shifts, but the pricing reflects near-consensus skepticism about Hegseth's viability as a general election candidate.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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