Will Assen Vassilev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?

This market shows extreme pricing disconnect with near-zero liquidity despite $6.1M open interest, suggesting the 0¢ price reflects minimal recent trading rather than genuine consensus that Vassilev has zero chance. The sharp 7-day collapse from 9¢ to 0¢ combined with only $93.6K daily volume indicates a potential liquidity trap where large positions may be trapped at unfavorable prices. With over 16 months until the April 2026 expiry, the market appears underpriced given Vassilev's recent prominence in Bulgarian politics, warranting caution about taking the zero probability at face value.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Bulgaria following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Bulgaria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Regime

Trade