Internacional wins by over 1.5 goals?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 29¢ price generating an implausible 6,638% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity distortion or a data anomaly given the modest $734.2 volume and open interest. The 7-day price collapse from 2¢ to 28¢ combined with 388% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 3 indicates high uncertainty around a match originally scheduled for April 19, 2026 but apparently delayed, raising questions about whether the game will occur before the May 3 expiration. The tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score provide little conviction that current pricing reflects true probability rather than thin-market dysfunction.

Resolution rules

If Internacional wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Internacional vs Mirassol professional Brasileiro soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade