Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 5¢ price implying just 5% probability for Mirassol to win by over 1.5 goals, yet the Yes-side implied yield reaches an astronomical 40,440%—suggesting severe undervaluation relative to historical volatility of 7,167%. The 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 6¢ indicates recent sharp repricing, though liquidity remains dangerously thin at $483.39 open interest with only 14 days to expiry, creating cliff risk (index: 16) that could amplify volatility further if new information arrives at the current rate of 1.1 events per hour. The neutral regime and tight 1¢ spread offer little clarity on directional conviction, but the asymmetric yield profile suggests either a genuine analytical edge for contrarian bettors or illiquidity-driven distortion that could rapidly correct.

Resolution rules

If Mirassol wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Internacional vs Mirassol professional Brasileiro soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade