Remo wins by over 1.5 goals?

5¢mid

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 3, 2026·14d remaining

KXBRASILEIROSPREAD-26APR19RBBCR-CR1

7-day price239 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the theoretical 60,614% implied yield on a Yes position. The 8,486% realized volatility and recent price movement from 2¢ to 4¢ suggest minimal trading activity is causing outsized swings, while the 14-day expiry and high cliff risk index (24) indicate resolution is imminent for a Bragantino vs Remo match originally scheduled for April 19, 2026. The extreme yield figures are artifacts of near-zero pricing in an illiquid market rather than genuine arbitrage opportunities.

Resolution rules

If Remo wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Bragantino vs Remo professional Brasileiro soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 60614.4%

IY (No) 105.2%

Adj IY 60614%

CRI 24

RV 8486%

VR 1.16

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	60614.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	105.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	60614%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	8486%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.16	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:53:12 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRASILEIROSPREAD-26APR19RBBCR-CR1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →