20

96¢

Bid/Ask 96/99¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $2,157.86·OI $5,519.13·Closes Apr 21, 2026·2d remaining

KXHORMUZTRAFFICW-26APR19-T20

7-day price39 snapshots · 36 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is pricing an extremely high probability (96%) for transit calls exceeding 20 through the Strait of Hormuz, with just 2 days to resolution, yet the No side offers a stunning 100,000% implied yield—a massive red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or a potential mispricing. The $5.5k open interest and modest $2.2k daily volume indicate thin liquidity, while the 3¢ spread and 88% realized volatility reflect uncertainty despite the lopsided price, and the Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests meaningful tail risk as we approach the April 21 close.

Resolution rules

If number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 20 from Apr 13, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 711.0%

IY (No) >100,000%

Adj IY 96870%

CRI 24

RV 88%

VR 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	711.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	>100,000%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	96870%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	88%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.33	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:40:49 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXHORMUZTRAFFICW-26APR19-T20 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →