30

This market is pricing in a 93% probability that transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz exceed 30 during the April 13-19 window, with only 2 days until resolution on 4/21/2026. The extreme 100,000% implied yield on the No side reflects the minimal $0.07 ask price, creating a highly asymmetric risk profile typical of deep out-of-the-money positions. The sharp 14-cent rally over 7 days combined with elevated realized volatility (121%) and a Cliff Risk Index of 13 suggests recent information arrival (0.9/h) has shifted conviction toward Yes, though the thin $8.6K open interest and modest $5.5K daily volume indicate this is a low-liquidity niche market vulnerable to sharp moves on any new data about Hormuz traffic patterns.

Resolution rules

If number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 from Apr 13, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade