Will Alex Bregman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-ABRE

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4695% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 4¢ price reflects a highly skeptical view of Bregman leading MLB in runs—a feat requiring him to maintain elite performance while outpacing younger stars—though the spread remains tight at 4¢. With 187 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, the market has adequate time for information to develop, but the negligible liquidity means any position would face severe execution challenges.

Resolution rules

If Alex Bregman leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:47:39 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-ABRE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →