Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

At 13¢, this market prices Judge's chances of leading MLB in runs at just 13%, which seems conservative given his consistent elite performance and the Yankees' offensive infrastructure—the asymmetric 1312% Yes yield reflects the extreme long-shot pricing. Liquidity is thin with only $94 open interest and $83 in 24-hour volume, creating a 2¢ spread that may not reflect true probability; the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest limited recent conviction either direction. With 186 days to expiry, there's substantial time for Judge's 2026 season trajectory to shift market sentiment, though the high cliff risk index (7) indicates potential for sharp repricing around key events like spring training or early-season performance.

Resolution rules

If Aaron Judge leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade