Will Austin Riley lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-ARIL

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is essentially illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 4706% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine market conviction—Riley would need to significantly outpace competitors like Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to lead baseball in runs, a feat rarely accomplished by any single player. The neutral regime and 186-day timeframe suggest this is a speculative long-shot bet with minimal market depth rather than a serious probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If Austin Riley leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:47:24 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-ARIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →