Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-BHAR

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 4706% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the micro-liquidity rather than genuine market conviction—Harper leading MLB in runs is a meaningful but not extreme long shot given his age (34 in 2026) and injury history. The 186-day timeframe to resolution and neutral regime suggest this is a speculative niche market that would benefit from deeper order book depth before meaningful positions should be considered.

Resolution rules

If Bryce Harper leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:50:01 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-BHAR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →