Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 4/8¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $1·OI $150·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-BWIT

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $150 open interest, making the 4% price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 4706% implied yield on Yes reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine edge, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant uncertainty in how this will resolve. At 4¢ with 186 days to expiry, this appears to be a speculative micro-position rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.

Resolution rules

If Bobby Witt Jr. leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:47:24 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-BWIT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →