Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-FFRE

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4694.8% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 4¢ price appears significantly undervalued given Freeman's elite offensive profile and age (he'll be 36 in 2026), though the modest cliff risk index of 24 suggests the market isn't pricing in major injury concerns. The massive spread between Yes and No yields indicates this is essentially a dead market awaiting either meaningful liquidity injection or resolution in late October 2026.

Resolution rules

If Freddie Freeman leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:47:23 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-FFRE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →