Will Jarren Duran lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JDUR

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4683.6% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 4¢ price appears to significantly undervalue Duran's chances—a young Red Sox star would need to sustain elite performance over a full season to lead MLB in runs, but the probability implied here (4%) seems pessimistic for a player with his trajectory and opportunity. The high Cliff Risk Index of 24 and 187 days to expiration suggest this market could see sharp repricing if Duran has a strong 2025 season, making it a speculative bet rather than a liquid trading opportunity.

Resolution rules

If Jarren Duran leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:48:34 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JDUR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →