Will Jackson Merrill lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4706% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 4¢ price reflects a heavily skeptical view of Merrill leading MLB in runs—a feat requiring him to significantly outpace established stars—though the massive yield differential suggests the market may be underpricing a young player's breakout potential. With 186 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, position holders face meaningful uncertainty, and any meaningful volume would likely move this price substantially.

Resolution rules

If Jackson Merrill leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade