Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

7¢

Bid/Ask 6/7¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $35·OI $145·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JSOT

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $145 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 2593.7% implied yield on the Yes side is an extreme outlier that reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market consensus, while the 14.7% yield on No suggests the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about Soto's injury risk or performance over the next 187 days. The wide spread and neutral regime score indicate this contract lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a credible probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If Juan Soto leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3072.1%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 1536%

CRI 16

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3072.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1536%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:46:21 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JSOT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →