Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

7¢

Bid/Ask 0/6¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $448·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-KTUC

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market is severely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $448 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 2605% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is pricing in an extraordinarily unlikely outcome—Tucker would need to significantly outperform historical run-scoring leaders, a feat attempted by only elite players in peak seasons. The wide 6¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 indicate thin order books and potential for sharp repricing if any significant volume enters.

Resolution rules

If Kyle Tucker leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2605.2%

IY (No) 14.8%

Adj IY 186%

CRI 13

Overround 1.9%

LAS 0.86

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2605.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	186%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.86	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:49:35 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-KTUC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →