Will Luis Arraez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-LARR

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4684% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading. The 4¢ price appears significantly undervalued given Arraez's consistent top-tier performance (he led MLB in runs in 2024 with 119), suggesting either severe market inefficiency or that bettors are heavily discounting his injury risk and durability over a full 2026 season. With 187 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 24, this is a speculative micro-market where any actual trade could dramatically move the price.

Resolution rules

If Luis Arraez leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:48:01 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-LARR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →