Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4706% implied yield on the Yes side largely meaningless—it reflects the minimal capital required to move prices rather than genuine expected returns. At 4 cents, the market is pricing Machado at just a 4% chance to lead MLB in runs, which seems low for a star player in his prime, though his age (34 in 2026) and the statistical difficulty of leading the league in runs (typically requiring 120+ runs) provide some justification. The 186-day timeframe to expiry and neutral regime suggest this is primarily a liquidity problem rather than a market inefficiency, and any position here carries substantial cliff risk given the minimal trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Manny Machado leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade