Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-MOLS

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4697% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading. The 4¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability for Olson to lead MLB in runs—a feat requiring him to significantly outpace elite baserunners like Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber—suggesting either sharp undervaluation or appropriate skepticism given his age (32 in 2026) and historical run totals that have peaked around 100-110 annually. With 186 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this appears to be a novelty/low-conviction market where the pricing should be treated with caution due to minimal liquidity.

Resolution rules

If Matt Olson leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 2353%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2353%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:48:00 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-MOLS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →