Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 4690.9% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of minimal trading activity rather than genuine edge—such astronomical returns typically indicate thin markets where even small trades distort pricing. At 4% implied probability, Alonso would need to significantly outpace elite baserunners like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, which is plausible but not highly probable for a single season, suggesting the price may be artificially depressed due to illiquidity rather than fundamental undervaluation.

Resolution rules

If Pete Alonso leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

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