Will Sal Frelick lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-SFRE

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The 4701% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of minimal liquidity rather than genuine edge, while the 24-point Cliff Risk Index suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics. With 186 days to expiry, this contract is too thinly traded to serve as a meaningful probability signal for whether Frelick will lead MLB in runs.

Resolution rules

If Sal Frelick leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4706.1%

IY (No) 8.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

Overround 1.9%

LAS 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4706.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 10:47:27 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-SFRE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →