Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?

6¢
Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $231·Closes Oct 22, 2026·186d remaining
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-TTUR

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price generating a 3,057% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe undervaluation given Turner's elite speed and leadoff credentials. The $0 24-hour volume combined with just $231 open interest indicates dangerously low liquidity, making the wide 4¢ spread a significant execution risk despite the theoretical edge. With 187 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this appears to be a neglected micro-market where the pricing may not reflect Turner's legitimate contention for the runs title, though illiquidity makes it difficult to capitalize on the mispricing.

Resolution rules

If Trea Turner leads Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3072.1%
IY (No) 12.5%
Adj IY 1536%
CRI 16
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)3072.1%
IY (No)12.5%
Adj IY1536%
CRI16
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/19/2026, 10:51:06 AM
Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:38:32 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-TTUR yes 100

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